OUR INTERVIEW. Will the health service withstand the predicted 50,000 infections? Prof. Gut: Probably yes. The number of occupied beds and ventilators is decreasing

„The number of deaths has stabilised at a certain level, and the number of illnesses if we compare to Wednesday of the previous week is indeed surprising. But if we assume it is the accumulation of Saturday and Sunday that has been examined - not necessarily. What is more worrying is the high percentage of the positive results in general testing.”

— Professor Włodzimierz Gut, a virologist, says in an interview with wPolityce.pl, commenting on the current epidemic situation.

wPolityce.pl: Ministry of Health recorded increase of coronavirus infections to slightly over 30 thousand. The prognosis for next week is disastrous, as the ministry estimates that as many as 50 thousand infections can be reported daily. The situation seems alarming. What is your opinion on the matter? Is there anything that is responsible for such an increase in the number of infections? What is the reason for this situation?

Prof. Włodzimierz Gut: The basic question is whether we will reach such an increase of infections. The number of deaths has stabilised on a certain level, and the number of infections, if we compare it with Wednesday of the previous week, is really surprising. But if we assume that it is the accumulation of Saturday and Sunday which has been examined - not necessarily. What is more worrying is the high percentage of the positive results in general testing.

What is the reason that a year ago, even though people had not yet been vaccinated, there were fewer infections than there are now, when people are vaccinated and vaccinations are becoming more widespread?

Infections are not vaccine-dependent, because a vaccine does not protect against infection. What protects against infection is our behaviour. If we follow the right behavioural package, we avoid infection. If we administer the vaccine, we prepare for the infection, but we are not avoiding it.

What is your prediction of how the situation might develop? Should we expect further escalation, or is this the culmination of this fifth wave?

I am not in the business of fortune-telling. We will see in the coming days whether there will be further escalation or it will simply fall below this level, because then it will show that it is simply an accumulation of undetected infections in a short period of time, i.e. late admission to the system of a specific group of people.

If the predictions of the Ministry of Health were to come true and we actually have 50,000 infections a day next week, is the health service able to withstand that?

The health service, as you can see is coping: so far the number of occupied beds and the number of ventilators have been decreasing, so I think it is rather yes.

Tłum. K.J.