Poland’s Policy in the Face of Trump’s Volatility

Trump constantly changes his mind on strategic matters. From this perspective, Poland, while maintaining the best possible relations with the United States, should more quickly develop its own potential and remain flexible regarding various policy approaches.

A Poker-like Second Term

Donald Trump’s second term is undeniably less predictable than the first. This may be due to the specifics of the American constitution, which allows the president to serve only two terms. After all, Trump has nothing left to lose. Everyone sees that the poker player from Mar-a-Lago plays hard and unconventionally — but also changes his mind very frequently.

On February 28, the world held its breath when a meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky, Donald Trump, and J. D. Vance ended in an unprecedented quarrel. The American side repeatedly attacked the Ukrainian president on camera, accusing him of ingratitude. In the following weeks, it seemed as though Ukraine — which had been attacked by Russia — was the obstacle preventing Trump from “ending the war in 24 hours.” Washington’s stance emboldened the Russians — but only for a while. On July 13, the American president declared that Putin “speaks beautifully, but bombs people at night,” and as a result, the United States would send weapons to Ukraine using European money. Media reports even suggested that Trump had sounded out the Ukrainians about whether they were willing to attack Moscow.

Was it really the financial pledges from Europeans that were decisive, or — as in the case of the “minerals deal” — did Trump simply need a pretext to change his mind? The American president often changes course, and then tries to build a narrative to justify it.

Shifting Approach to Iran and China

No one was particularly surprised when Trump repeatedly emphasized that he had no interest in engaging in a conflict with Iran and that it was “the last thing he’d want to do.” Of course, such declarations allowed him to appeal to isolationist Republicans. However, when Israel, during an airstrike between June 12–13, effectively paralyzed Iran’s air defences, the U.S. president decided… to change his mind. On June 21, American bombs were already falling on Iran’s nuclear installations. Trump changes his mind frequently, but in some areas the term “absurdly often” fits better. On April 2, when he announced a tariff package dubbed “Liberation Day” targeting nearly every country, several items — copper, pharmaceuticals, selected critical raw materials, energy, etc. — were excluded despite previous statements. Later, Trump eased “reciprocal tariff rates” for some nations, signaled openness to trade talks, and on April 9 unexpectedly… suspended most tariffs.

Even the approach to America’s “archenemy,” China, remained inconsistent. Initially, Trump proposed setting tariffs against China at 145%, but quickly signaled willingness to reduce them to 90%. In May, he announced a 90-day pause on the most severe parts of his new trade policy.

Investors Get Used to the Unpredictable

Trump is thus the king of unpredictability, which initially terrified politicians and markets alike. Zelensky’s February humiliation made headlines about a divided West and a Europe that must awaken to the Russian threat. Yet by July, top European politicians, “accustomed” to the “Trump factor,” were offering him money in exchange for a shift in his stance on the Ukraine conflict.

Another example? Markets panicked when Washington declared “Liberation Day” on April 2. The world’s 500 richest people lost $536 billion in just two days. But Trump’s subsequent tariff flip-flops gradually stopped worrying investors.

That’s not to say everyone simply accepted the new reality. In addition to flattery or offering Trump incentives (like money or a new Air Force One), key countries began changing their policies. Europeans didn’t abandon talks with Washington, but simultaneously started rearming. This includes not only declarations of spending 5% of GDP on defence within NATO, but also a new EU budget with military-industrial spending. Europe also aims to rebuild its relationship with China during the 50th anniversary of bilateral relations, so as not to be at the mercy of the Americans.

Europe Builds Ties with Beijing — What About Poland?

The same is happening below the EU level. In early July, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with counterparts in Berlin and Paris. One topic was limiting the export of Chinese rare earth metals, but there were also more local issues. For example, Paris wants to secure meat and dairy exports to China and ensure that bilateral tensions don’t harm its cognac producers. Berlin continues to discuss its automotive industry. But these are economies much larger than Poland’s. So, it’s worth noting Spain — which, despite U.S. pressure (including threats from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent), maintains strong ties with Beijing. Evidence includes Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s April visit to China to discuss exports of chemicals, minerals, and industrial components. Spain even bought Chinese IT equipment for its police and security forces. So where is Poland in all this?

The debate in Poland remains minimal. But Trump’s volatility should, beyond boosting our own capacity, also lead to the understanding that we shouldn’t close ourselves off to different policy options out of fear of being punished by our stronger transatlantic partner. After all, Trump can change his mind — on anything, at any time.

Piotr Maciążek - Journalist, commentator, expert in energy and geopolitics. Co-host of the Podwójny prosty channel on YouTube. Author of the book “A Stake Greater than Gas: The Hidden War for Poland’s Independence.”