Is Russia planning war in the Balkans? The following are three places that could be a "hot spot" where a new conflict may erupt

„Please turn your attention to the Balkans. Believe the information we are receiving: Russia has a long plan. The Middle East, there will be the Balkans, at least, if the countries of the world don’t do anything now, there will be such an outbreak again.”

These are the words of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky not long ago.

Precarious situation

Zelensky says that Russia, which has a lot of influence in the Western Balkan region, could initiate a new conflict that would distract the international community from its aggression against Ukraine. Just as some believe it has done a similar thing in the Middle East, by inspiring Hamas to attack Israel.

The Ukrainian president may be right. The Western Balkans is now in a truly precarious situation. Torn between its ambitions for European integration, which cannot be realized, and the ever-increasing influence of Moscow, Beijing and Muslim countries, this part of Europe, home to many nations, remains vulnerable to the possibility of a conflict.

As we are well aware, the six countries of the Western Balkans - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, Northern Macedonia and Serbia - are at different stages of the EU accession process.

The region has long been receiving promises to speed up the process, but it still remains extremely slow. This creates frustration among citizens, as well as among political elites, which then seek new solutions for their countries. The example of North Macedonia is indicative here. According to most analyses, the country has long met the conditions for EU membership, but failed to obtain it due to the blockades of Greece and Bulgaria, which were politically motivated.

In a situation of utter frustration, the Balkan states are opening themselves up to the influence of the East (with some of them historically linked, such as Serbia) resulting in the very situation we face. Time will tell whether the West will recognize that it is in its interest to deal with this part of Europe.

At this point, as many as three sites in the region could constitute a „hot spot,” i.e. a place where a new conflict may erupt.

Serbia and Kosovo

Serbia’s relationship with Kosovo remains perhaps the most dangerous unresolved issue in this part of Europe. As we all know, Belgrade does not want to recognize the independence of its former province.

Neither is helped by the Kosovo government’s stubborn refusal to implement the 2013 Brussels Agreement, which was supposed to normalize relations between Belgrade and Pristina. The point in question is the establishment of a Union of Serb Municipalities bringing together 10 municipalities in northern Kosovo, right on the border with Serbia. Pristina fears that such a union could be used to strengthen separatist tendencies among Serbs.

It is also well known that Serbia and Russia share deep historical and cultural ties, strengthened by the Orthodox faith. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, has long pursued a policy of maintaining a balance in relations between the European Union, of which Serbia wants to become a member (it ran for membership in 2012), and relations with Russia and China, with which Belgrade has strong economic ties. The war in Ukraine, however, makes this an increasingly difficult task.

To remind, there was a shootout in northern Kosovo in September between Kosovo forces and ethnic Serbs who barricaded themselves in a monastery. Most analysts say the armed and organized Serbs who attacked Kosovo police had the support of Belgrade. The Serbian army has long been strengthening its forces along the Kosovo border, and the international community has responded by increasing its forces in Kosovo.

Montenegro

This April saw big changes in this small country that is a member of NATO.

In the presidential election, Jakov Milatović defeated Milo Đukanović, a politician who had dominated Montenegro for 32 years. Đukanović is a man who has pursued various policies in his career, and in recent years it has mostly been pro-Western. Jakov Milatović was previously Minister of Economy in the government of pro-Serbian Prime Minister Zdravko Krivokapić. It was a coalition government that ended the 30-year domination of the Democratic Socialist Party led by Milo Đukanović.

Mijatović’s Europa Party won the June parliamentary elections. After a long period of crisis, a government headed by Prime Minister Milojko Spajic was formed in late October. This government formally has pro-European goals, the problem is that some say its real head is the pro-Serbian and pro-Russian politician Andrija Mandić, who is considered a loyal soldier of Russian-Serbian imperialism.

Montenegro, which declared its independence and left the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro after a referendum in 2006 (just over 55 percent of citizens voted in favor of separation from ties with Serbia), is still divided. Most of the population identifies as Montenegrin, but there are also those who declare Serbian nationality and long for the former state.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

B&H is in a serious crisis. It is clear that the Dayton Agreement, which ended the country’s war in 1995, cannot continue to provide a legal basis for the functioning of this federated state. Bosnia and Herzegovina is failing, the economy is weak and corruption is widespread. None of the three nations living there are satisfied, hence new solutions are being sought.

Among the possibilities are constitutional and electoral reforms that would abolish the institution of constitutional nations and define B&H as a purely civic state. This is the solution being pushed by the Bosnian side in B&H. Opposed to this solution are the Serbs of Republika Srpska, but also the Croats who live with the Bosniaks in the Federation, another administrative unit of B&H. They believe that Bosnia and Herzegovina must continue to be based on the principle of ethnicity. Other solutions, Serb and Croat representatives say, will lead to Bosniak domination and the creation of a unitary state.

At the same time, Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik is threatening to withdraw his representatives from the central government in Sarajevo and to form his own army. Dodik is unhappy with the way B&H operates and says bluntly that he is fed up with how it works. Dodik is a politician who over the past few years has established himself as Putin’s main man in the Balkans, perhaps even more loyal than Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.

An additional problem is the strengthening influence of Muslim countries on Bosnians. Mainly Turkey, but also Arab countries. Thanks to them, also radical Islam is strengthening. Some analysts in Croatia claim that the Mujahideen influence in B&H is so strong that it poses the same level of threat as Russian influence.