According to the unanimous opinion of experts and commentators, we are in a very difficult time: an ongoing pandemic, a war across the border, the urgent necessity to help refugees, the increasingly insolent illegitimate pressure from Brussels and Berlin. All this together results in uncertainty, fears, mounting crises and, above all, price rises (present all over the world but the situation of the frontline countries is proving particularly challenging).

The atmosphere is being heated by Donald Tusk, who’s been trying to inflame public opinion by spreading fear, creating panic, hurling insults and accusing those in power of all sorts of things (including war and pandemics). The model of opposition he has proposed is to take Polish public debate down to the level of a wild animal battle. It is a style so primitive that he would never dare to offer it to the Germans or the French. And if he tried, he would certainly be rebuked.

The above factors are making the opposition very hopeful of breaching support for the United Right. After all, if not now, then when? Thus the fake polls announcing the alleged victory of PiS over PO.

However, according to the results of reliable research agencies, such as Social Changes, nothing of the sort can be seen. On the contrary, despite the difficult moment, the results of Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s camp are impressively high, offering the prospect of a fight for an independent majority in the next term.

Let’s look at the latest survey.

Thirty-eight per cent of respondents would vote for the United Right - one point more compared to the previous reading.

The Civic Coalition 27 per cent - three per cent less than previously.

Szymon Holownia’s Poland 2050 unchanged - 10 per cent.

The Confederation can count on 9 per cent of the vote, gaining one point.

The Left has 8 per cent, one point more.

PSL Coalition Poland would gain support of just 3 per cent - 1 point less than previously.

Kukiz‘15 unchanged - 2 per cent.

Porozumienie - 1 per cent.

However, one should remember this - there is a tough winter ahead for Poland with many challenges. Just a moment’s inattention, a few mistakes and disappointed expectations, pride or confusion, and everything can fall to pieces.

Here is the forecast turnout:

Tłum.K.J.