It is Ukraine that has the upper hand and it should dictate its terms. It is already apparent that Peskov is aware of the development of the situation. No mercy; Ukraine should not take a step back. This war has cost Ukraine too much to accept Putin’s conditions now. Let the Russians be aware of this. If, in 2-3 days, it turns out that the Ukrainians are preparing for a counter-attack, Moscow will shit its pants with fear - I apologise for the soldier’s slang

— said in an interview with the portal wPolityce.pl General Waldemar Skrzypczak, the former commander of the Land Forces and the former commander of the Polish military contingent in Iraq.

wPolityce.pl: On the radio program you said that the war in Ukraine will be settled in 2-3, maximum 5 days. What is the basis for your opinion?

Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak: Unless the Russians bring operational reserves to Ukraine, they have no chance of winning the war. At this point, the peace talks are about to begin.

However, there are reports from the Ukrainian side that a secret mobilization of Russian troops has been ordered in Krasnodar Krai.

May there be mobilisation there, but please remember that a reserve soldier is of low quality. If such a soldier is not prepared for combat, which he certainly is not, he will be of no use anyway. How can you think that such a newly created formation will win the war, if the professional army, to pardon the expression, gave up? Listening to some of the Polish experts makes me appalled. The facts are that Putin deployed his best troops in Ukraine and they have been hammered.

However, if you only read the daily analyses of the Centre for Eastern Studies, they show that the Russians are slowly but sadly making progress in their offensive.

Which progress? These analyses are written by people who are completely ignorant of tactics and operational art. The Russians planned to occupy the hydroelectric power station at Kaniów and failed to get there. In Mykolaiv the Russians were defeated. Soon Ukraine will make an offensive turn, there will be a counter-attack. Do you know how many troops the Russians are using to surround Ukrainian cities? They are encircling them with two rings - the second ring is to protect the troops capturing the cities from an external attack. At the moment, the Russians have moved to the defensive on many fronts because they no longer have the means to attack, and it is the Ukrainians who are carrying out counterattacks.

Yet so far, these counterattacks have not resulted in a significant push back of Russian forces from outside Kiev, for example.

The aim of these counterattacks is not to drive the Russians back. The idea is to inflict such damage on them that they cannot attack further. I have a friend of mine who is in a bunker in Kiev, and I receive information from him - of course, he does not tell me everything, because he is not allowed to, but I can gather from many of his words what the situation is. The Ukrainians are doing well.

According to today’s figures from the general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces, more than 11 000 Russian soldiers have already been killed. Some time ago, you were saying that 3-4 times more wounded soldiers should be added to the number of soldiers that have been eliminated.

Hence, let’s say that if 200,000 Russians have attacked Ukraine, then already one-quarter of them are slaughtered. Then who are they supposed to attack with? In operational art, if a unit has lost around 40% of its personnel and equipment, then this unit has partially lost its combat capability. However, if it loses 60% of its overall combat capability, the unit is completely withdrawn from the battlefield, as it is incapable of conducting combat operations. It should withdraw to Russia and restore its combat capability there. By what means are they supposed to make progress? If it turned out now that the Ukrainians could make counterattacks on an operational scale, then it would mean that the Russians would find it impossible to defend themselves.

Speaking to Reuters today, Kremlin spokesman Dimitry Peskov proposed conditions upon which Russia would suspend its „military operation”. In addition to the cease of military action, these conditions include enshrining Ukraine’s neutrality in the constitution and recognising Russia’s annexation of Crimea, as well as declaring the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk to be independent states. In your opinion, is this a real proposal or a form of diplomatic horse-trading?

I would not react at all to such a proposal if I were in the position of the Ukrainians. Why did Pieskov not make such a proposal three days ago? It was because when the Russians carried out another strike, they hoped that this time they would succeed. Meanwhile, they bounced off the wall again and now they are the ones who will be offering peaceful solutions. As time passes, their expectations will soften. Ukraine is now expected to dictate the conditions, as it is starting to win the war. In 2-3 days’ time it will turn out that the Russians are in deep shit. If it turns out that the Ukrainians have moved to a counter-offensive, do you know what will happen? Immediately the Germans and the French will go and ask Zelensky not to attack the Russians.

Meanwhile, the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine are to meet in Turkey on Thursday. Is it possible that they will be able to reach an agreement there?

Let me repeat that it is Ukraine that has the upper hand and it should dictate the conditions. It is already clear that Pieskov is aware of the development of the situation. There is no mercy; Ukraine should not take a step back. This war has cost Ukraine too much to accept Putin’s conditions now. Let the Russians be aware of this. If, in 2-3 days’ time, it really turns out that the Ukrainians are preparing for a counter-strike, Moscow will shit its pants - I apologise for the soldier’s slang. I believe the Ukrainians have retained operational reserves and will retain counter-attack - it only takes one, on the Kiev direction, to smash a Russian grouping and the war is over. Putin will beg for peace.

By Adam Stankiewicz

Tłum. K.J