OUR SURVEY. PO no longer on the rise, PiS winning. Hołownia still standing strong. Interestingly, PO gains with Trzaskowski as the party leader

According to the survey conducted by Social Changes on behalf of the portal wPolityce.pl, the Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska), recently taken over by Donald Tusk, has not only stopped gaining, but is actually weakening. The ratings of Poland 2050 remain high, while PiS recorded its best result since many months.

In our survey, 36% of respondents declared their willingness to vote for the United Right, which is an increase of 2 percentage points compared to the previous survey.

24 percent of respondents intend to vote for the Civic Coalition, a decrease of 1 point.

The support for Szymon Hołownia’s Poland 2050 has remained at 19%. - No changes. The Confederation is supported by 9 percent of respondents - also no change compared to last week’s survey.

The Left Party (Lewica) has lost 1 point, currently supported by 7 percent of respondents.

The Polish People’s Party (Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe) is supported by 2 percent of respondents, exactly the same number as in the previous survey.

Kukiz‘15 was also supported by 2 percent of respondents - no change.

In another survey, we asked respondents how they would vote if Rafał Trzaskowski was the leader of Civic Platform. It turns out that the president of Warsaw would boost the party’s ratings by 3 points compared to the result achieved under Tusk’s leadership:

In turn, the survey in which we asked the voters who should be the leader of the Platform confirms that Tusk is supported by the so-called iron electorate of the Platform; Trzaskowski is regarded more favourably by voters of Poland 2050 and the United Right.

The declared turnout is 68%.

The survey was conducted using the CAWI method (Computer Assisted Web Interview) on an internet panel. The survey was conducted on a nationwide, representative (in terms of gender, age, place of residence) sample of N=1063 Poles between 23 and 26 July 2021.