OUR INTERVIEW. 15 000 new cases per day is the limit of healthcare capacity? Prof. Ptaszyński: This is our estimate

wPolityce.pl: We have over 10 thousand confirmed new cases. Despite the restrictions introduced, the number of infected people is constantly growing. Why?

Paweł Ptaszyński, Deputy Director of the Central Clinical Hospital of the Medical University of Łódź: Because we still have a high intensity of contacts, which were in the past as well, and its consequences now overlap. This is the mechanism. (…) The most important thing for us now is that the number of infected people should not increase up to about 15 thousand or more. I think that if the elements of the recently introduced measures start to work, this should only happen next week. I think that, the day after tomorrow, the numbers will still be large.

So 15 000 new cases a day is the limit of the system’s capacity?

That is our estimate. Looking at the fact that at 10 000, things are already starting to look bad, 15 000 seems a lot. Let us remember that these figures relate only to confirmed cases. Certainly, there are more infections which we are not able to ‘identify’, because not everyone is symptomatic. However, it seems that at the moment, there are many of such patients. Of course, the question is whether all patients need to be hospitalised and whether they all really need specialist treatment. This data is also needed.

Should further restrictions be introduced in your opinion?

That is a difficult question, because we would really want to see how the ones that have been introduced so far actually work.

We should remember that as long as we do not have effective measures in the form of a vaccine, then all the countries of Europe have the same problem, which means that these infections will occur. This disease does not cure itself, and we do not know the remedy for it. In fact, earlier, the Czechs were proud to have completely eliminated the virus as a result of certain restrictions, but it has now returned. That is the way this virus spreads. Anyone who has not yet been ill may become infected.

Tłum. K.J.