Will President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus retain power or will he be wiped out in Belarusian August? This question is being asked by journalists, politicians and analysts. We asked it to the Poles.

According to a study conducted by the Social Changes studio commissioned by wPolityce.pl, opinions on this matter are divided, although the largest group believes that ‘Lukashenka’ will eventually resign.

Asked a question:

Do you think that Alexander Lukashenko will maintain or lose the leadership in Belarus?

— the largest group, 38%, replied that he would lose power.

According to 28% of respondents, the President of Belarus will retain his power.

A total of 34% of respondents chose the answer ‘hard to say’.

Interestingly, the voters of both rivals in the presidential election - Andrzej Duda and Rafał Trzaskowski - have a very similar opinion on this matter.

The editorial staff of the portal wPolityce.pl also asked its readers about Lukashenko’s chances of survival (it is still possible to participate). The results are more equal than in our survey, and indicate a growing belief that the regime in Belarus will not change, however.

The survey was conducted using the CAWI (Computer Assisted Web Interview) method on an internet panel, from 21 to 24 August 2020, on a nationwide, representative (in terms of: gender, age, size of place of residence) sample of Poles. N=1062 people participated in the study.

Tłum. K.J.