OUR INTERVIEW. Virusologist: We have no choice but to do what we have to do. The focus has shifted

Aleksandra Jakubowska, wPolityce.pl: We have the fifty-second day of the epidemic worldwide and the twelfth since the first detected case of coronavirus infection in Poland. Can we tell today at what stage of this pandemic we are at? Is this already the peak and from that moment on the number of patients will start to decrease?

Professor Włodzimierz Gut, virologist: The focus has shifted. We can say that China has already overcome this crisis. There will still be cases of disease for a long time to come, but this is already a downward trend and one can safely say that China can declare the end of the epidemic. The situation in Europe is worse. Italians are becoming the world leader. They have a little more than a quarter of all infections in China, and yet the area and population here is significantly smaller. Then Iran and South Korea, followed by virtually all European countries, so there’s a fire on all our borders

The statistics show that we have 139 times less infections than Italy, 92 times less than Norway, 75 times less than Denmark… It’s amazing that in this European leading group, apart from Italy, there are also Scandinavian countries.

Because they least expected the virus to reach them. Everybody apparently seemed to be aware of the situation, they were familiar with the procedures, methods, but these needed to be implemented at the right time. In theory, the procedures should have been the first to be implemented in England, France and Italy, because of the connections to the centre of the epidemic in China

Is it essential to limit the spread of the virus to stop the pandemic?

The first action of any country is to prevent the virus from entering its territory, but this is practically impossible. Secondly, once a country has recorded cases of infection, the spread of the virus within the country must be minimised and stopped. At the moment, virtually the whole of Europe is at this stage. But at the moment we have such borders that the virus is penetrating from every country to the neighbouring ones. Therefore, what remains is the third stage, i.e. the detection of maximum, preferably all, cases of disease and the quarantine of those who have had recent contact with the infected before the symptoms occurred.

**Is our society disciplined? Is it true that if someone finds out that they have had contact and there is a risk that they might get sick, they turn to the health resort?v

I am positively surprised, because I expected it could be worse. The quarantine is violated by relatively few people; I don’t know if it is due to this fine of 5 thousand zlotys, or if we just happen to have a society that is wise. Italians have made all possible mistakes. They started too late, then within small areas, but by allowing people to migrate. I understand that this is a tourist country, and that explains it in a way, because if it hadn’t expanded, the decision-makers would have suffered the consequences of such decisions. Although schools were closed, pubs, discos and all the entertainment venues were neglected. The youth treated it as an additional holiday and the virus spread where it shouldn’t. As for the other countries, the Germans did well with the first wave, which came from China, but were not able to stop the Italian wave, like the rest of Europe. Fortunately we found ourselves in a situation, when this Italian wave already got stuck in Europe, so first few cases came to Poland from Germany

Can we expect the rise in the number of cases in the near future? Are the measures that have been taken sufficient?

For the time being, there is no indication that there will be any decline in European countries. Of course, our borders are blocked, but there is no 100% blockade; even as there were borders, human smuggling existed, and now there will be situations of „smuggling” of the disease. And this could be a problem. As long as Poland’s neighbours do not reach the stabilisation phase followed by the first signs of a decline in the disease, we can only stop the growth.

So the biggest threat is actually coming from abroad?

Exactly, because a person starts infecting before the first symptoms appear and without even being aware of it.

What stage are we at?

At the moment we are at the stage of limiting the spread of the virus, i.e. avoiding larger gatherings, identifying all those who come into contact with the infected, quarantine at home for now, because for today it turns out that there is no need to do a closed quarantine. But if it is necessary, there will be no other option.

What would be your assessment of the decision-makers and us Poles?

The procedures were prepared on time and properly. The society is doing well for the time being. We have a crisis situation abroad, that is, we are in a situation where our house is not yet on fire, but pieces of burning around houses are falling on us. And now anyone who starts a discussion about whether we can do something more and maybe it’s not right at all, maybe too fast, maybe too slow… No, we have no choice but to do what we have to do.

To put out the burning pieces falling around?

Yes, we are to put out what we’re getting. If we start talking, we might find ourselves talking on the ruins of our house which is already burned-down.

The interview was conducted by Aleksandra Jakubowska

Tłum. K.J.