According to the pre-election forecast prepared by Badania.pro for Onet and „Fakt”, Law and Justice (PiS) can count on support amounting to over 45%. Thus, Jarosław Kaczyński’s party would have 246 seats in the Parliament.

Badania.pro uses a statistical model to forecast party preferences, which is based on long-term monitoring of the surveys of the following research centres: IBRiS, Estimator, Kantar, Pollster, CBOS, Ipsos, Indicator and DobraOpinia.

According to the pre-election forecast prepared for Onet and Fakt, the Law and Justice party can count on support amounting to over 45% and 246 seats in the Parliament. This means that Jarosław Kaczyński’s party would receive 15 more seats than necessary to achieve an independent parliamentary majority.

At the same time, Law and Justice would lack 30 seats to 276 (with that result the party could reject the President’s veto), as well as 61 seats to the constitutional majority (2/3 of all seats).

The second place is taken by the Civic Coalition (KO), which can count on about 28% of votes. It would thus gain 146 seats.

The left (KW SLD) with 13.3% support would enter the Parliament with 54 representatives.

The support for the PSL-Polish Coalition in mid-September was 6.5%, which translates into 13 seats.

One representative would be introduced to the Parliament by Mniejszość Niemiecka (German Minority).

The Confederation would be placed under the electoral threshold with the result of 4.2%, which would translate into 13 seats. Support for other committees is estimated at 1.4%. According to the forecast, the most seats for the Law and Justice party would be won in: Warsaw (in both districts: 15), Rzeszów (12), Lublin (10), Kielce (9), Nowy Sącz (9), Białystok (9).

KO can count on the highest results in: Warsaw (in both districts: 13) and Wrocław, Gdynia and Gdańsk (in each of these cities the party would gain 6 seats). The Left would gain the most seats in Warsaw (in both districts: 4), but none in Nowy Sącz or Tarnów. The Polish Coalition can count on the greatest support in Kielce (2 seats), but it would not win any seats in Wrocław, Poznań or Warsaw.

Tłum. K.J.